Seamless weather and climate predictions

JAMSTEC is developing a numerical simulation system that predicts weather and climate variations in a seamless manner from several weeks to seasons and a year to investigate the possibility of weather and climate predictions. Our outcomes toward disaster projection include demonstration of the possibility of typhoon genesis prediction two weeks in advance and providing new insight into changes in typhoon structure resulting from global warming. We are also seeking predictability of extreme phenomena through investigating relationships between tropical intraseasonal variability and the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclone genesis and intense rainfall. Toward global-warming adaptation in Asia, where typhoons frequently cause damage, we are seeking to improve the accuracy of regional-scale typhoon projection resulting from global warming. This R&D will accelerate improvement of operational numerical weather prediction and contribute to international activity, specifically, preparation of the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Cloud and air flow structures around a typhoon simulated using NICAM
Specific humidity of water content (top) and latent heating (bottom) around intense typhoons simulated using NICAM. Present climate (left) and future change (right; color) are shown
Zonal wind at approximately 1500 m in altitude and the location of typhoon genesis (x) from August 1–10 (top), August 11–20 (middle), and August 21–30 (bottom)

Project Team for HPC Advanced Predictions utilizing Big Data

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